Automated analysis of election coverage

Dr. Arno Schaal at ECOResearch Network out of Perth, Australia has launched US Election 2004, a neat project that automatically analyzes media coverage of the 2004 US Presidential election and provides a variety of analyses:

The results reflect media attention and attitude towards the US presidential candidates. Keywords grouped by political party and geographic region summarize the issues associated with each candidate. Comparisons with the commercial and non-profit sectors put the snapshot of media coverage into perspective.

Our system captures the Web sites of the Fortune 1000 (the biggest US companies in terms of revenue), environmental organizations and international media from the US, Canada, UK, Australia and New Zealand. From these sites, the system processes more than 500,000 documents each week, comprising about 125 million words in 11 million sentences.

  • Attention presents the number of references to a particular candidate as a percentage relative to all candidate references in a given week.

  • Attitude tracks the semantic association of the candidate’s name with positive and negative terms taken from a tagged dictionary. While attention is a percentage, attitude can have positive and negative values (zero represents neutral coverage).

  • Keywords identify topics associated with the presidential candidates by comparing the frequency of terms in sentences that contain the name of a candidate with a reference distribution taken from the sample’s complete set of documents.

This kind of analysis has tremendous potential for lowering the cost of media monitoring and allowing groups to see how well their memes are spreading. I’d love to see it replicated for other topic areas.

Citizen Microsoft

My good friend Jeff Reifman has an incendiary new feature story in the Seattle Weekly titled Citizen Microsoft. It’s a long piece that picks up a number of major themes:

  • Microsoft’s increasing involvement in Washington State politics, promoting increased spending and tax breaks for corporations

  • Jeff estimates that Microsoft has (legally) dodged $105 million in taxes over the past two years by “domestically off-shoring” its profits to tax-free Nevada in order to shield them from Washington State taxes.

  • The rise of socially responsible business — even in the tech sector (think of Google’s “don’t be evil” pledge and Craigslist) and the corporate accountability movement.

Jeff’s conclusion is particularly solid:

Microsoft remains “committed to one straightforward goal, and that is ensuring that the world center for developing the best and most popular software in the world will remain Washington state.” Yet what makes Washington great for Microsoft isn’t necessarily what makes Washington a great place to live. And what if the most popular software in the world soon isn’t made by Microsoft?

The Legislature should meet our education and transportation needs, certainly, but not on Microsoft’s terms. It faces increased competition and, perhaps, slower local growth and even layoffs. And no amount of tax breaks for business or improved education and transportation is going to change that. Microsoft’s own decisions and behavior are responsible for its fate. We can’t change Microsoft’s behavior. But we can stop rewarding that behavior….

Robyn Hitchcock: Spooked

spooked_1.jpgRobyn Hitchcock has always been one of my favorite singer-songwriters. As Dean Ericksen explained it to me once, “He is just organically weird.”

Just got his new record Spooked, on which his backup band is Gillian Welch and David Rawlings. (Talk about a match made in heaven!)

My favorite track on first listen: the thematically appropriate “We’re Gonna Live in the Trees.”

Urban Greens vs. Rural Progressives?

In a BlueOregon guest column, Pat Hayes from Prospect, Oregon discusses BlueOregon: Urban Greens vs. Rural Progressives.

He makes some a pretty broad generalization:

When I first worked in the woods, loggers, miners, mill workers, farmers and ranchers voted moderate to progressive D. There was a wise and healthy distrust of management, financiers and the mercantile class who voted moderate to conservative R. Now the former vote solidly and consistently conservative to lunatic fringe R, having been sold down the river by urban and green interests for absolutely no discernible or logical reason.

Pat offers no specifics are offered to back this up.

However, he does make a good point about the iimportance of operating from inside rural communities:

We have the opportunity to develop resilient and adaptive communities, but it cannot be achieved by organizations headquartered in Portland or Eugene. Come and live with us in Burns or Lakeview or Nyssa. Help us educate our folks to move from logging to Linux.

Evan Manvel of 1000 Friends of Oregon chimes with a more nuanced analysis:

The urbans and greens have been there to fight against the larger forces that led to unemployment in the rural areas — that is, exporting jobs oversees, replacing humans with machines, big box retailing, etc. The green press was full of stories about the corporate timber owners who bought up companies only to outsource and replace workers with machines, even with record timber cuts and record timber profits.

And the greens have been the backbone of support for land use planning, which does its best to keep those nasty wine-sipping liberals from converting productive farm and forestland into tract housing. There are groups like 1000 Friends of Oregon or Pacific Rivers Council, who opposed Measure 64 (the clearcutting ban) in 1998. Both 1000 Friends and the Oregon Environmental Council have farmer advisory groups, and have worked to create partnerships with cattlemen.

And then there are progessive groups like Oregon Rural Action, Rural Organizing Project, and others, who are NOT based in Portland or Eugene (to be fair, 1000 Friends has six offices around the state, and other groups have offices in Medford, Klamath Falls, etc.)

Instead, I think that the media (and others) have been attracted to the areas of conflict between certain urbans and greens and the value-driven rural folks. There are certain folks who HAVE worked hard to pass measures that would significantly change current farming and forestry practices, via initiatives, legislation, lawsuits, etc. And apparently those folks have managed to drive away a key constituency of progressivism.

But in the end, the rural and the urban areas aren’t as different as they are similar. In each place, out of any three people, one’s a conservative, one’s a liberal, and one’s in-between. We would do well to remember that person in the middle, who, as you say, can become an ally if we take the time to work together.

To me, this kind of dialogue does point out the need for the environmental community to invest more time and effort in developing leaders from rural communities and putting them front-and-center in the public dialogue.

Neil Young Joins a B.C Air War

The Tyee offers a nice analysis of the dynamics surrounding the clean air fight around the Crofton pulp mill in Duncan, BC.

The article briefly mentions ONE/Northwest ally Matt Price, who has been working with the mill’s labor unions and environmentalists:

Some are making an effort to find common ground between the greens and the blue-collars. Duncan environmentalist Matt Price organized a low-key conference the day before the all-star concert. The message from the two unions representing workers at the mill: We know the company better than anyone and have no interest in poisoning ourselves or our children. Plus, don’t threaten our jobs. They, too, see a villain in the piece.

The article is also interesting because it highlights the need for lots more work on the labor-environmental relationship:

Davies, a millwright at the mill and one of 674 workers represented by the PPWC, admits any alliance with environmentalists will likely be an uneasy one, with each side suspicious of the others’ motive.

As if to highlight the mistrust, Davies was interrupted in the middle of an interview by a burly man who barked, “Christ, man, we’ve got an air pollution problem,” before embarking on a rant about creosote.

It was like having a drunk at the next table overhear a single word before launching into a diatribe. The environmentalist took a breath after saying, “The company, goddamn, they’re ruthless.” The man then introduced himself. He was Paul George, founder of the Western Canada Wilderness Committee and the husband of Adriane Carr, the B.C. Green Party leader who was attending the conference.

Herding free-range cats

Herding free-range cats from the just-added-to-my-blogroll Aldon Hynes is a nice look at the recent CivicSpace developer summit from someone with considerable experience at both software development and group dynamics.

There were a lot of talk about usability, the interface and the users’ experience of CivicSpace. There were discussions of architecture and long-term goals. There was a big of a split between the developers and user interface people, and questions about how functionality should be implemented led to long drawn out discussions. Another dynamic was between the need for immediate fixes and action items to come out in the first version, and longer-term goals….

Open source programmers are the feral free-range cats. Herding them is even more of a challenge….

One of the first things I’ve always tried to focus on with any group I’ve been part of is defining the primary task. I was somewhat frustrated by a lack of clarity in terms of a primary task or specific sets of apparent goals for the summit….

There wasn’t a clear understanding of how all the different people involved in CivicSpace interact, or how we would define success. Yet in many ways, this was highly appropriate. CivicSpace seems committed to a bottom-up, emergent approach to activism. People work on what is important to them, and from that a true vision emerges. In many ways, the summit exemplified this approach….

However, I did observe that I’ve worked with other groups with much clearer goals, and leaders with much stronger personalities that were not able to get nearly as much done as CivicSpace has been getting done. In spite of all the different personalities, goals, agendas, etc., CivicSpace is doing important work, not only in developing and distributing some important software, but also in modeling how progressive open source software groups can work together…..

The New York Model

The New York Model covers some of the interesting ways that RNC protest organizers used SMS (text messaging), VoIP-powered automated telephone information lines, and other leading-edge network technology to power their “counter-convention” efforts, and the independent media coverage of it.

Fun stuff, although I’m still trying to figure out how it’s relevant to campaigns that are playing out over longer periods of time in less intense circumstances.

Important op-ed from Bruce Schneier on “wholesale security”

Security guru and privacy advocate Bruce Schneier has an important op-ed on the increasing amount of “wholesale survelliance” in our society and the importance of the need for checks on its abuse.

The effects of wholesale surveillance on privacy and civil liberties is profound; but unfortunately, the debate often gets mischaracterized as a question about how much privacy we need to give up in order to be secure. This is wrong. It’s obvious that we are all safer when the police can use all techniques at their disposal. What we need are corresponding mechanisms to prevent abuse, and that don’t place an unreasonable burden on the innocent.

Winning the Oil Endgame

Winning the Oil Endgame is the latest book from Amory Lovins and his gang of innovative energy/sustainability thinkers at Rocky Mountain Institute.

Winning the Oil Endgame offers a coherent strategy for ending oil dependence, starting with the United States but applicable worldwide. There are many analyses of the oil problem. This synthesis is the first roadmap of the oil solution– one led by business for profit, not dictated by government for reasons of ideology. This roadmap is independent, peer-reviewed, written for business and military leaders, and co-funded by the Pentagon. It combines innovative technologies and new business models with uncommon public policies: market-oriented without taxes, innovation-driven without mandates, not dependent on major (if any) national legislation, and designed to support, not distort, business logic.

Pretty big promise on arguably the most important issue of our age. I love the positive, solution-oriented language that is explicitly designed to feel welcoming to business leaders. These folks are masters of framing, and it’s a pleasure to watch them work.

They also get big points for making their entire book available as a free PDF download. Shows they’re both tech-savvy AND serious about getting the ideas out there, not just selling books.

Wild Sky measure dies in House

The Seattle-PI reports the bad news that Wild Sky Wilderness bill was killed yesterday in the House of Representatives.

George Nethercutt was unable to persuade his fellow (neanderthal) Republican Richard Pombo (CA) to let the bill out of committee.

This is clearly a major defeat for Nethercutt the Negotiator. Methinks it also shows that the GOP has given up hope of Nethercutt defeating Patty Murray — otherwise they would have gritted their teeth and moved let the bill onto the floor to give Nethercutt a boost in his campaign.

VotePair

Carnet, Rachel, Brent, Kendra and a bunch of other talented folks have just launched VotePair which unifies and extends the various “vote trading” efforts from 2000, in which Nader supporters in “safe” states agree to “pair their votes” with Green supporters in swing states.

It’s nice to see a polished, well-intentioned effort like this, but I’m not sure I really see how vote pairing moves us much closer to creating a multiparty system. Come to think of it, I’ve never seen anyone articulate a clear strategy for breaking the two-party strangelhold on American politics.

Kerry ahead in Washington 49% to 41%

A new poll conducted by Ipsos-Reid for The Columbian shows Kerry ahead 49% to 41%, with 4% for Nader (5% MOE). This is enough most national poll-pundits to put Washington in the Kerry column, but The Columbia still insists on playing up the drama, headinling their article, “Presidential race remains tight in Washington.”

Last time I checked, 8 points wasn’t exactly “tight.”

iPodder: automatic downloads of MP3 content and its potential for advocacy communications

Marty Kearns picks up on the advocacy potential of iPodder, a new tool that automates the process of downloading new MP3 files by querying RSS feeds. iPodder integrates with iTunes, so that new content is downloaded whenever you sync your iPod with iTunes. (Neat tricks indeed.)

iPodder’s still on the rough-and-tumble bleeding edge of open-source software hacks, but the idea has huge merit.

This opens some interesting new possibilities for freeing content from our computers — folks could listen to daily campaign updates while commuting.

The big challenge in unlocking this potential is the dearth of engaging audio content. Marty suggests that we auto-convert existing written content, but I think this overlooks the fact that audio is an inherent different medium than print, and interesting audio requires completely different production techniques.

The environmental movement hasn’t yet demonstrated many multimedia production skills. I think this is because doing good multimedia production is extremely time-intensive and requires storytelling skills that our movement simply doesn’t select or train for. As a movement we desperately need to invest more in the skills needed to produce high quality audio (and video!) content. The internet is handing us all of these amazing tools for routing around the traditional media, but we need to rise to the challenge and produce strong content to fill the void.

The good news is that doing broadcast quality audio doesn’t require much gear anymore.

Distributed watchdogging of local media election coverage

I’m extremely pleased to see that the Alliance for Better Campaigns is organizing Election News Watchdog, a project to monitor the election coverage of local media outlets.

They’ve made it easy for volunteers to watch local TV broadcasts, then use the web to report on their coverage of state & local elections.

Great, great stuff. I’ll be filling out scorecards as I watch local news over the next few weeks. I encourage you to do the same.

A Tale of Two Kootenays

A Tale of Two Kootenays is a great essay from Don Gayton in TheTyee.ca about the Kootenay region of eastern BC. Great “sense of place” essay about a wild and beautiful corner of our bioregion.

In the Kootenays, I see the ideal location for a bioregional culture. Who are we Kootenaians? Well, we are a full day’s drive from either Calgary or Vancouver. Although we do travel to those places on occasion, we are completely out of their orbit. Spokane or the Okanagan is half a day away, but other than for the rare weekend shopping trip, these locations might as well be on another planet.

Kryptonite bike locks easy to pick with a Bic pen

Aaorn VanDerlip passes along the following information:

The popular Kryptonite Ulock bike lock is easily picked. The information on how to do this is spreading through the internet. I picked my own lock in about 10 seconds, pretty scary. Pass it on to folks you know who cycle, it is like an Microsoft security hole in the non-electronic world.

Boston Globe article on insecure Kryptonite bike locks

Video of lock picking in action

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Reply